A New Kind of Moneyball, cont'd

A couple of mediocre outfielders, Carlos Lee (six years, $100 million) and Alfonso Soriano (eight years, $136 million) stand to make more money next year than Pedro Martinez does.  One good outfielder who can't hit (Gary Matthew, Jr.) will be making $55 million over the next five seasons.  Why are teams--which in recent years had reined in spending--suddenly paying players far, far more than they're worth?  Here are five likely reasons:

1.  The success of revenue sharing:  In baseball, trickle-down economics works.  Clubs in smaller markets share the blockbuster receipts of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Mets.

2.  The notion that intelligent overspending might actually make sense:  Omar Minaya made big-money deals with Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Delgado, then nearly took his team to the World Series.  Of course, Pedro, who's injured, may not pitch at all in 2007, or ever again, but ambitious GMs will tend to focus, I believe, on the previous sentence here.

3.  Parity in the National League:  With a month to play in the 2006 season, eight NL teams placed within four games of the Wild Card lead.  Undoubtedly numerous GMs feel that they're just a player away from making the offseason.  This helps explain what's probably the worst deal of this offseason (so far, it needs must be added), the Astros' signing of Carlos Lee.

4.  A backlash against "moneyball":  For several years, teams prided themselves on locating undervalued players. With so many clubs now willing to spend astronomical sums, avoiding risk may mean taking yourself out of the market altogether.

5.  Herd behavior:  Shortly before the GM Meetings in Florida, Boston paid $51.1 million for the right  to negotiate with Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka, and with that, baseball's economic pendulum may have swung dramatically away from fiscal prudence.  "When investors are influenced by others' decisions, they may herd on an investment decision that is wrong for all of them," write the authors of a 2001 International Monetary Fund paper, "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets."  What's more, "Individuals [in a market] may have a preference for conformity."  Fearful of innovation, baseball is nothing if not conservative.  Which in this case is just another word for reckless.